A Possible New Split in Ak Zhol

The leaders of Kazakhstan's opposition party Adilet (Justice) which merged this year with another opposition party Ak Zhol (Bright Path) expressed their wish to exit the short-lasting coalition. According to Interfax Kazakhstan, the leadership of Adilet came to this conclusion late last week during a meeting to discuss its goals following Ak Zhol's unsuccessful showing in August's parliamentary elections.

Despite the hope of the opposition prior to the elections, the Nazarbayev-led Nur Otan party became the only party to make it past the 7 percent threshold needed to get representation in the lower house of the parliament. Leaders of the All-National Social Democratic Party, Ak Zhol, and the People’s Communist Party of Kazakhstan made a joint appeal to Nazarbayev, demanding that the parliamentary elections be canceled as illegitimate.

Kazakh Leopard Following in the Steps of the Asian Tigers

Nezavisimaya Gazeta - Yuri Solozobov

President Nursultan Nazarbayev's Nur Otan is the only political party represented in the new Majilis (lower house of the parliament). It polled 88.05% votes. No other political party scaled the 7% barrier. The United Social Democratic Party or USDP polled 4.62%, Ak Jol 3.27%. Political scientists had expected the opposition (USDP and Ak Jol) to make the parliament but voters decided otherwise.

How come parties of the opposition failed to scale the 7% barrier? There exist at least two explanations. The opposition was not ready from the standpoint of organization. USDP leader Oraz Jandosov admits that "discussion of consolidation took too long." Another explanation is even more alarming in its implications. Parties of the opposition like the USDP fell victim of their own radicalism. They called for dismantlement of the effective state machinery and development of some "new Kazakhstan" in its place. Voters in their turn want stability and therefore opted for a more moderate policy of the reforms pursued by Nazarbayev. Kazakhstan as it is does have accomplishments to take pride in. Why would its citizens jeopardize the recent economic and political successes? Particularly for the sake of personal ambitions of former state officials with inflated egos. By the way, very many expected the regime to permit Ak Jol, constructive opposition party headed by ex-chief of the presidential apparat Alihan Baimenov, to make the parliament. They were mistaken. The Kazakh leadership opted for no-nonsense but transparent rules for the snap parliamentary election. It set out to establish a bona fide political system, not an imaginary political landscape existing only on paper. And if the Kazakh opposition is weak nowadays, then it is surely its own problem. The election last Saturday dotted all Is and crossed all Ts in the political masquerade in Kazakhstan but left political parties every real opportunity to keep working.

Viewed against this background, USDP and Ak Jol leaders' refusal to recognize the outcome is clearly an attempt to make the best of a bad bargain. When election is monitored by more than 1,000 foreign observers, it is not exactly a "profanation" no matter what the losers say. Independent watchdog groups appraised the election as fair and transparent. "The election was fair and legitimate. All in all, it was in line with the acting legislation and international commitments of the Republic of Kazakhstan," to quote observers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. OSCE experts ended up with a more or less similar opinion.

"This is the first time our country got this appraisal. It proves that Kazakhstan is making progress in the correct political direction," Nazarbayev said. The president called Nur Otan's triumph logical and refused to se absence of the opposition from the parliament as a "tragedy". "History of the world knows single-party parliaments that are quite effective," he said.

The president of Kazakhstan was undeniably referring to the political experience of Lee Kuan Yew, author of the Singaporean marvel who dispelled the myth of universality of the Western model of democracy and state rule. Prime minister of Singapore between 1959 and 1990, Yew was simultaneously leader of the ruling People's Action Party. Single-party parliament of Singapore was elected in 1968. Following that, the People's Action Party either won absolutely all seats on the parliament or an overwhelming majority of them in campaign after campaign. Singapore was not any worse off for it. On the contrary, the country made some truly amazing progress in political and economic modernization.

Looking for its own model of democracy and modernization and examples to follow, the Kazakh leadership more and more frequently turns to the so called Asian model of democracy successfully tried in the Asian-Pacific region in the second half of the 20th century. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore are known throughout the world as democracies where all fundamental principles of democratic rule are observed. On the other hand, their democratic systems do greatly differ from Western democracies. Political experience of the Asian-Pacific region sets an example for official Astana. Ideologists of the Kazakh reforms are convinced that the political system of their native country should be a synthesis of democracy (democracy as a way and means, not the ultimate objective) and national traditions of Kazakhstan.

Preparing the political reforms, Astana studied foreign experience. Kazakh leaders believe that "there are three models of democracy in the world these days: European, classic, and the new Afro-Asian one. Kazakhstan should decide which of them is best for its conditions, culture, population, and traditions." Results of the snap parliamentary election shows that the Asian model has been chosen. Kazakh leopard is following in the steps of the Asian tigers.

News Roundup - Post-Election - Saturday, August 18, 2007

The Economist: No Change Tolerated in Kazakhstan
President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s party won 88% of the vote in Kazakhstan’s parliamentary election and claimed every available seat. The removal of all opposition from the lower house greatly undermines the ostensibly democratic constitutional changes that served as a pretext for bringing the election forward by two years...
International Herald Tribune: EU Urges Kazakhstan to Bring Election Laws up to International Standards
The European Union has urged Kazakhstan to introduce reforms to bring its electoral laws in line with international democratic standards after a vote that gave all available parliamentary seats to the party of President Nursultan Nazarbayev...
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: EU Urges Kazakh Reform After Election Draws Criticism
A U.S. State Department spokesman, Gonzalo Gallegos, said that while Kazakhstan had made progress toward democratic reform, the election fell short of international standards. He said the 7 percent barrier for parties to win seats was too high, and criticized other election rules that allow the government to appoint some representatives to the lower house...
The Moscow Times: Nazarbayev Says Sweep 'No Tragedy'
A new parliament consisting of solely the party headed by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev will be "no tragedy" for the oil-producing Central Asian state, the long-serving leader said Monday...
EurasiaNet Civil Society: Kazakhstan Set to Have One-Party Parliament Following Disputed Election
Kazakhstan’s governing Nur Otan Party will hold a near-monopoly on seats in the next parliament after scoring a landslide victory in August 18 elections. The results came under immediate criticism from international observers, and confounded most political experts, who had predicted that the opposition stood to gain more seats than ever before...
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: President Hails Election Landslide As Good For All Kazakhs
Opposition leaders say the preliminary results suggest the clock has been turned back to Soviet-era totalitarian rule. International observers have called the process flawed...
Washington Times: Kazakh Vote: A Step Forward
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which monitored the parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan this Saturday, found them a step forward toward democracy. This is a welcome change from the usual OSCE criticism of voting in the post-Soviet countries...
NewEurasia.net: Sham Election Leaves Kazakhstani Opposition Out in the Cold
While everyone who follows Kazakhstani politics expected Nur-Otan, the President’s uber-party, to win the election on August 18th, few thought that the results would be this obviously un-democratic...
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: Kazakh Vote Sparks Fear Of Regional Imitations
When the Kazakh ruling party won all 98 seats at stake in the August 18 elections, President Nursultan Nazarbaev suggested that democracy and pluralism would not suffer under a one-party system. But political observers and opposition voices in Central Asia counter that it might have a negative impact in the region, with other leaders adopting the "Kazakh method" to tighten their grip on power...
ISN ETH Zurich: Nazarbayev's Coup
Kazakhstan's 18 August elections for the lower house of parliament (Mazhilis) were held ostensibly to give more power to the parliament and expand party representation in the house. None of those objectives were achieved...

OSCE's Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions on the 18 August 2007 Parliamentary Elections in Kazakhstan

Here is the link to OSCE's report on preliminary findings and conclusions on the election.

News Roundup - Election - Saturday August 18, 2007

New York Times: Party of Kazakh President Sweeps Seats in Parliament
President Nursultan Nazarbayev tightened his already considerable grip over the political life of this petroleum-blessed former Soviet republic, after weekend parliamentary elections in which his governing party won every seat being contested...
Washington Post: Ruling Party Sweeps Kazakhstan Election, Official Count Shows
The ruling party of Kazakhstan won all of the contested seats in a nationwide parliamentary election this weekend, according to preliminary results announced Sunday...
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: Ruling Party Sweeps Kazakh Parliamentary Polls
Preliminary results show Kazakhstan's ruling Nur Otan party has won 88 percent of the vote in August 18 parliamentary elections, leaving the opposition with no seats...
International Herald Tribune: Kazakh Elections Criticized at Home and Abroad
President Nursultan Nazarbayev's party won all available seats in Kazakhstan's new parliament in an election that international observers said Sunday was flawed but still showed the oil-rich country was making progress toward becoming a democracy...
Aljazeera.net: Kazakh ruling party sweeps poll
Nur Otan, the Kazakh president's political party, has won 88 per cent of the vote in a parliamentary election, leaving the opposition with no seats, the central election commission said...
Interfax: Kazakhstan Opposition Doesn't Recognize Election Returns
Kazakhstan's opposition parties Ak Zhol (Bright Path) and Nationwide Social-Democratic Party do not recognize preliminary returns of Saturday's parliamentary elections, announced by the Central Elections Commission...
The Moscow Times: Kazakh President Gets His Landslide
President Nursultan Nazarbayev's party won all available seats in Kazakhstan's new parliament in an election that international observers said Sunday was flawed but that still showed the oil-rich country was making progress toward becoming a democracy...
The Independent: Kazakh Poll Gives All Seats to Nazarbayev
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's party won every available seat in a new parliament yesterday after a flawed vote the opposition said turned the clock back to totalitarian Soviet rule...
EuroNews.net: OSCE Criticises Kazakh Election
Kazakhstan's president and his party have swept to a massive landslide election victory, but observers say the parliamentary vote failed to meet international standards...
Time: Democracy — Kazakh-Style
No election in Kazakhstan's 16 years of independence has yet been seen as free and fair by Western observers. If they expected a better showing at the elections for the Majilis (the lower house of the Kazakhstan parliament), held by Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev yesterday, they should have known better...
EurasiaNet Insight: Ruling Party Sweeps Parliamentary Polls
Preliminary results show Kazakhstan’s ruling Nur Otan party has won 88 percent of the vote in August 18 parliamentary elections, leaving the opposition with no seats. According to the Central Election Commission, neither of the country’s two main opposition parties succeeded in reaching the 7 percent hurdle needed for representation in the 107-member Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament, RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service reported...
The Roberts Report: The Most Un-Anticipated Election in Kazakhstan’s History Approaches…Will Anybody Notice?
Nursultan Nazarbayev has a skill for calling timely elections. Over the years, he has called numerous shot-gun elections that prevent opposition groups from preparing and often catch the international community off guard...
Bloomberg: Kazakhstan Elections Mark Step `Forward,' OSCE Says
Kazakhstan's parliamentary elections, swept by President Nursultan Nazarbayev's party, marked some progress in democracy, an international observer mission said...
International Herald Tribune: Kazakhs Suspected of Election Misconduct
Internal documents detailing an apparent exchange between the intelligence services of Kazakhstan and President Nursultan Nazarbayev suggest that the state conducted operations against international election monitors during the presidential election of 2005...